Kasparov Checkmated

(Forbes)LONDON - Russian chess legend Gary Kasparov has finally run out of moves against the grand master of Russian politics, President Vladimir Putin.

"My electoral campaign finishes tomorrow," Kasparov told journalists in Moscow on Wednesday, abandoning his hopes of challenging Putin's nominee Dmitry Medvedev, during the presidential elections due to take place in March. Kasparov blamed problems organizing an official meeting of supporters to back him as candidate, as required under Russian electoral law.

While Kasparov's move might grab headlines in the West, it is likely to cause no more than a flicker in Russia, where his defeat, like that of all other opposition parties, is a virtual given. Medvedev, Putin's successer as presidential candidate for the United Russia party is expected to sweep to victory in March, a win made all the more certain by last week's parliamentary elections. (See: "Russia's Kremlin Sustains Control")

While candidates from opposition parties do exist, they are expected to get no more than 15.0% of the vote, and Kasparov himself unlikely to have got more than 2.0%, Eurasia Group analyst Denis Maslov told Forbes.com.

Kasparov and other critics of the Putin regime have accused the Kremlin of crushing democratic opposition by dominating the media, instituting electoral laws that penalize small parties, and using heavy handed tactics to break up opposition rallies and demonstrations. (See: "Garry Kasparov's Next Move")

These factors have certainly played a role, but even without them observers believe that the astounding popularity of Putin and his policies would have given the opposition, which is heavily divided, little hope.

The huge strides made by Russia, both economically and on the international stage, during the past few years have made Putin virtually a cult figure. After the dark years that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union, the stable environment offered to businesses and the massive boost to the economy from oil and gas reserves, provided a deflated and despondent public with a much needed lift.

Though Medvedev's position as Chairman of Gazprom, may provoke some concern from European leaders already anxious about the power of the energy goliath, within Russia he represents a very credible and successor to Putin. At 42, he is relatively young, while his quiet political style is likely to help smooth the country's choppy relationship with the West. (See: "Mr. Gazprom For Russia")

According to Maslov, though, outside of Russia Kasparov has come to symbolize democratic opposition to Putin, within the country he is seen as just one of many.

"Kasparov may be a media darling in the West, but in Russia he is not seen as a particularly charismatic character," said Maslov. In particular, Kasparov's promises to change the system have not gone down well in a country that craves stability. "People in Russia don’t want any more revolutionary upheavals. They are quite pleased with how things are going."